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For a brief period, Donald Trump seemed to take a strong stance on the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing warnings of "significant repercussions" last August in case Putin persisted blocking truce negotiations, the former president ultimately enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move seriously hindered Putin's ability to fund his war effort in the region.

Yet, via his newly presented 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by US and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has clearly reverted to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's initiative would effectively benefit the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the initiative in reality compromise that same autonomy. This constitutes a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Russia's invasion is not only about dominating a charred region of deindustrialized area in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it stops acts as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that Putin's growing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in place the currently separated oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would force the nation to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond rewarding the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unable to seize in exceeding a decade of warfare, this concession would render Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the site of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that represent a essential obstacle to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Putin a clear path to the capital in case he subsequently choose to renew the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Additionally, in a action that would make future conflict more feasible for the Russian military, Trump would mandate Ukraine to reduce the scale of its military from their current approximately 800,000 soldiers to a maximum of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the proposal sets no equivalent limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Russia's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people leadership as radicals, the plan states: "Any Nazi doctrine and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Seemingly to highlight this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his regime by holding elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

To be sure, the plan has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "enshrine in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – including the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government promised to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust Russia this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. While the proposal threatens a "immediate coordinated defense action" should Russia restart its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to concerning. The plan would not only block the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from deploying forces on Ukraine's soil, thereby precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Concern

A separate supplementary accord reportedly would provide the nation with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "major, planned, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. However different from a capable national defense – the nation's best protection against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond militarily to Russia's attacks, something they have {not