Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.